Gou Not Essential to KMT, TPP Integration
United Daily News, August 29, 2023
In the name of promoting the consolidation of opposition forces, Terry Gou announced August 28 his candidacy for president by obtaining signatures. Because Mr. Gou’s move has been in the making for months, his announcement is not a surprise. If Mr. Gou does run until the end, then it would have the least impact on the election results, because in a three-way race, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate William Lai had already been leading. With Mr. Gou joining the race, it will only make certain Mr. Lai’s victory. If Mr. Gou really wants to wield his influence, his insistence on running would not do the trick; it is rather his ability to consolidate the opposition forces and rein in the horse on the edge of the cliff that matters.
Although Mr. Gou claims that he represents the mainstream opinion, his decision to run is less legitimate nor right than four years ago. Not only had Mr. Gou reneged on his promise then, but when the Kuomintang (KMT) designated Hou Yu-ih as the presidential candidate, Mr. Gou wrote that he had always held the Republic of China in his heart and he would fully support Mr. Hou to win the election. Now that Mr. Gou has decided to walk his own way, it is natural that the KMT questions him on his integrity and his belief in Guan Yu—a god worshipped for loyalty.
Mr. Gou’s strategy has been clear for several months; that is, he intends to force consolidation by waging war. To implement his strategy, his actions have included the poaching of the KMT’s local factions, his flirtation with Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je, the frequent announcements of policies, and the organization of mass rallies. Mr. Gou’s strategic objective is to force KMT to replace Mr. Hou with himself or Mr. Ko’s concession for a Gou-Ko ticket for fear of losing.
It is awkward to watch that during July and August, the KMT or TPP paid lip service and expressed that they would respect Gou and hoped to see consolidation, but they did not offer olive branches to Mr. Gou by putting forth concrete plans for consolidation. On the other hand, except for local factions, there is a lack of big names that support Mr. Gou and the situation does not look good; and in a four-way race, Mr. Gou’s supporting rate is the lowest. Under these circumstances, it is quite doubtful whether Mr. Ko or Mr. Hou would yield, let alone the discussion of the value of consolidation.
Under this condition, Mr. Gou’s last chance is to use joint signatures to get the presidential ticket. If the joint signature campaign sees enthusiastic support, Mr. Gou can either use this to again demand consolidation of the opposition forces or to prepare for the race as an independent candidate. And because it is highly probable that DPP members would participate in the joint signature campaign, the result of the campaign may not look too bad. For these reasons, there will be much more hype on the issue of consolidation of the opposition forces before the deadline for signature collection.
The root of the problem is whether Mr. Gou plays an essential role if the opposition forces really want to consolidate. In other words, if either Mr. Ko or Mr. Hou wants to yield, must either of them yield to Mr. Gou? The answer may be negative. After all, both the KMT and TPP take winning the election into consideration, but another important consideration is governance after the election. It is the political parties that control the seats of legislators, so only if there is cooperation between political parties can the goal of a win-win situation be realized.
Political benefits trump the above assumptions. The KMT, TPP, and Mr. Gou each have their own reasoning. As a big party, KMT cannot concede the presidential candidate. As a leading opposition party, the TPP does not want to yield. And Mr. Gou is committed to becoming the president, so other people must yield to him. If the deadlock cannot be solved, then the presidential campaign will become a four-way race from a three-way race, the remaining time of the race will be meaningless, and it will ensure the DPP’s continued governance.